All of the Floridian Drama, Without the Warm Weather

Minnesotans have backstage passes to one of the greatest political dramas since the 2000 Presidential race. Interestingly, this drama is seemingly more a product of weak candidates than a great partisan split. Recent articles in the Strib and on MPR suggest that many people who voted Obama did not cast a vote for any candidate in the Senate race. This non-decision means that either there was a mistake made in the marking of the ballot or there was simply no vote made. Either way, election officials are determining the intention of each ballot. Here’s some map pron via the AP that shows the concentrations of people that opted out of voting in the Senate race. St. Louis Co. leads the way. Way to go Northland, we’re finally #1 in something.

A good portion of the attention from this ‘no-vote paradox’ is being focused on St. Louis County. Coleman’s campaign recently challenged 100 ballots coming out of Mt. Iron that all went for Franken. Coleman’s campaign manager also called the recount results from the Iron Range ’statistical dubious’. Is there some trickery going on up north or is there some other explanation? Let’s do a cursory analysis (insert cheers or jeers).

Last week The Degausser wrote about how the Northland delivered heavily for Franken. St. Louis County, the County that the Coleman campaign is questioning ballot totals from, went to Franken by 22 points. However, the totals from last week to today have changed as election officials are certifying results. Look at how things have changed. Franken has gained 395 total votes from Lake, St. Louis, and Carlton Counties. Coleman actually lost 2 votes.

Votes Gained or Lost Since Nov. 5
	Franken	Coleman	Barkley
Aitken	-5	-2	0
Carlton	54	0	0
Cook	0	0	0
Itasca	0	0	0
Koochiching	0	0	0
Lake	246	0	0
Saint Louis	100	0	0
TOTAL	395	-2	0

We can see how Coleman’s campaign manager would be upset, but what are the probabilities of evil shenanigans?

The precinct in question is Mt. Iron P1. According to the MN Secretary of State, there were 891 registered voters on Nov. 4 in this precinct. Here are the breakdowns:

Mt. Iron P1	Franken	Coleman	Barkley	TOTAL
New	506	211	95	812
Old	406	211	95	712
New %	62%	26%	12%
Old %	57%	30%	13%

The election was never in doubt for Franken in this precinct, he was up nearly 2 to 1 before the re-count. Also it appears that that the 100 vote gain was simply human error in totalling rather than lost votes being found, which changes the probability of fraud.

For arguments sake, however, let’s assume the new votes were found votes. What would the probability that they would all be Franken votes? Here is what we need to know to do the calculation

• The number of votes left (179) = Total registered voters (891) - Total votes cast (812) + 100
• Changed votes = 100
• Probability votes going to Franken = 57% (original win percentage)
• Probability votes going to Coleman = 43%

The expected score out of these assumptions, according to a binomial probability equation is 102. This means that the 100 votes Franken got is actually less than the statistical expectation.

One thing to be aware of is that this assumes that the Mt. Iron P1 district has a normal distribution of partisanship. Considering the heavy Obama vote and long standing DFL affiliations in the area, partisanship is not split 50/50. Although the 100 vote windfall was a calculation error and not found votes, numbers suggest Franken would have fared better if the ballots were found in the trunk of somebody’s car and entirely within the realm of possibility given the political make-up of the precinct. So, yes, the 100 vote appearance is strange, but surprisingly, it is statistical aberration that did less damage to Coleman than odds would suggest.